The climate impact of COVID-19-induced contrail changes
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract. The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant economic disruption in 2020 and severely impacted air traffic. We use a state-of-the-art Earth system model ensembles of tightly constrained simulations to evaluate the effect reductions aviation traffic on contrail radiative forcing climate 2020. In absence any COVID-19-pandemic-caused reductions, simulates effective (ERF) 62 ± 59 mW m−2 (2 standard deviations). ERF has complex spatial seasonal patterns that combine offsetting shortwave (solar) cooling longwave (infrared) heating from contrails cirrus. Cooling is larger June–August due preponderance Northern Hemisphere, while warming occurs throughout year. variations also map onto surface temperature variations. net land change normal year estimated at 0.13 0.04 K deviations), with some regions as much 0.7 K. flight decreased contrails. unique timing such which were maximum Hemisphere spring summer when largest occurs, means fewer boreal fall was offset by give no annual averaged changes Despite global ERF, because would have cooled slightly (minimum −0.2 K) but significantly implications for future impacts are discussed.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1680-7316', '1680-7324']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9405-2021